Will Texas be a Swing State?

In this blog post, Paul Burka addresses Obama's assertion that Texas will be a swing state soon. This statement was based on observing Texas' rapidly changing demographics. The GOP's power is dwindling, as its entire base continues to age. Additionally, the Hispanic population, who are much more likely to be Democrats, is growing drastically, accounting for 65% of Texas' population growth from 2000 to 2010. This, interestingly enough, seems to mirror the Republican Party's rise to power some 40 years ago. Prior to that, Texas had nearly always been a Democratic state, until their base began aging, allowing the growing number of younger Republicans and immigrants who also tended to be Republicans to gain control. Now the newer generation of young people and immigrants is gaining power within the state, only for the opposite party. A graph of the political trends in Texas can be seen below.

This graph clearly illustrates the declining power in the Democratic Party and the rise of the GOP. However, it also appears as though the Republican Population is decreasing, and the Democratic population rising. The Republicans had their highest population in 2005, when they made up 42 % of the electorate, 16% more than the Democrats' 26%, and have since declined, while the Democratic population continues to rise. As of 2010, Republicans make up 39% of the population while Democrats make up 38%, now almost equal in numbers. As Obama said, this change in demographics certainly suggests that Texas will soon be a swing state, though soon is very relative. Burka does think this is destined to happen, but doesn't believe it will be so soon. Whatever will happen, only time can tell. Assuming the current trend continues, when Texas does become a swing state elections will certainly be more interesting.